Peace may be war in post-war Libya The scars Gaddafi has left Libya, coupled with the West's role, will complicate a 'post-war' period

Libyans
wave Kingdom of Libya flags in Misrata as they celebrate the fall of
Muammar Gaddafi, but 'post-war' Libya is going to have challenges, says
author [REUTERS]

Apparently, Colonel Gaddafi was no guerrilla leader. Nor was he a
very cunning fugitive for long when stripped of the prerogatives of
state.

He retreated to his hometown and allowed himself to get caught up in a siege that could only be lost.

In
the weeks before Gaddafi's death, there were justified fears that Libya
was becoming a kind of post-invasion Iraq, "Mission Accomplished: The
Sequel". A rapier-like Western campaign has helped topple an autocrat,
but in the absence of an effective plan or means to replace him.

The
NTC has been unable to secure the country. Armed militias have clashed.
Many have suffered from the capricious rule of undisciplined men with
guns. Gaddafi was threatening insurgency.

Now the pendulum is
swinging the other way. The loved dictator is dead. Victory and peace
are declared. Celebration will be the order of the day. The 'political
process' can begin.

The combatants in the air and on the ground will feel justly proud they got their man.

But they will be wrong to think it's over.

The
fact that Saddam Hussein evaded capture for so long was not of great
significance to the many sided conflict that developed in post-invasion
Iraq. The hunt for the 'Ace of Spades' (as Hussein was in the decks of
cards issued to US soldiers) was a sideshow.

That the King of
Kings (one of Gaddafi's favoured titles) is dead does not change the
fact that the NTC has been unable to secure a country awash with armed
men. Libya is also a country shot through with rivalries, jealousies and
blood debts, among individuals and groups. Some of these divisions are
of historic vintage, many arise from Gaddafi's rule, and the war will
have added a new crop.

Like Iraq, Libya was mindembled through
histories of empire and its aftermath. It has been torn apart by war.
Now it has lost the one thing that united much of the country: hatred of
Colonel Gaddafi and his regime. Libyans are left to face the legacy of
his mastery of the art of divide and rule.

The manner in which the war was fought will be decisive in shaping what happens.

The
involvement of Western air forces meant that the rebels never had to
form a unified force. Only to a limited extent did they learn the habits
of cooperation under fire.

That is why they now lack an army with which to bring the country under control.

The
'political process' will be left dependent upon the willing cooperation
of communities. Victorious rebel bands will make experienced cadres for
their home militias. There are many scores to settle; competing visions
of the future; and the possibility of resort to arms if the 'process'
does not pan out for local interests.

Against these forces of
disorder will be little but the desire of ordinary Libyans to build a
just, democratic and flourishing country. Western mindistance, as ever,
will be fickle and come with many strings attached.

The
premature celebrations of victory in Libya and the West reflect a widely
shared habit of thought, that of making a sharp distinction between war
and peace. Chiefly we do this by putting dates after wars.

Diplomats and the UN make tidy distinctions between 'conflict' and 'post-conflict', upon which their policies are based.

Yet
fighting, out in the open or in the shadows, has often preceded and
post-dated the official period of hostilities. More fundamentally, there
is a continuum between peace and war.

Libya's clans and
interest groups will continue to pursue their ends, with all available
means. Negotiations are just another medium for strategic contest.
Battles over electoral arrangements for the constitutional council will
be crucial engagements.

Such negotiations and the gaming of the
elections that follow litter the landscape of contemporary conflicts in
the global South, as do violent and bitter losers.

In such
contexts, the spark of local clashes - sure to continue - can all too
easily set off larger wildfires. Other groups and interests are drawn
into the fighting, which becomes many sided.

These are the kinds of conflicts that have so often devastated postcolonial states, and they can last for many years.

Western
policy will continue to be drawn into the vortex of Libyan politics for
some time to come. Nimble intervention from the air - symbolised by the
well-placed missile file that might have halted Gaddafi's convoy - may
not appear so rapier-like in retrospect.

Tarak Barkawi is Senior Lecturer in the Centre of International Studies, University of Cambridge

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